AI on the Brink of Human-Level Creativity—Faster Than Expected
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has made a striking prediction: The world is just three to five years away from achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI)—AI capable of matching or exceeding the brightest human minds in fields like mathematics, art, and philosophy.
Speaking on the NatSec Tech podcast, Schmidt warned that this leap won’t come from gradual progress but through “recursive self-improvement,” where AI systems enhance their own capabilities without human intervention. And it’s already happening.
AI Writing Its Own Code—Accelerating Toward AGI
Schmidt pointed to OpenAI and Anthropic—two AI firms embroiled in lawsuits over alleged copyright violations—as examples of how rapidly the field is advancing. He revealed that 10-20% of their research code is now AI-generated, a trend he believes will hasten AGI’s arrival.
“What happens when every single one of us has the equivalent of the smartest human [working]on every problem in our pocket?” Schmidt posed. His answer? Society isn’t ready.
“AI Isn’t Overhyped—It’s Underhyped”
While many debate whether AI’s potential is exaggerated, Schmidt argues the opposite: People underestimate how disruptive AGI will be.
“This is happening faster than our society, our democracy, our laws will address,” he said, warning that policymakers are lagging behind. Meanwhile, the “San Francisco consensus” (a term Schmidt coined for Silicon Valley’s shared belief in rapid AI advancement) suggests an even more staggering milestone: Artificial SuperIntelligence (ASI)—machines smarter than all of humanity combined—could arrive within six years.
Music Industry at a Crossroads: Tool or Threat?
For artists and rights holders, Schmidt’s forecast is alarming. The music industry has pushed back against AI’s unfettered use of copyrighted works, with organisations like the Human Artistry Campaign advocating for policies that protect human creators. Record labels and publishers, meanwhile, are fighting to ensure AI remains a collaborative tool—not a replacement for human artistry.
Yet Schmidt’s vision suggests a tougher battle ahead. While copyright concerns went unaddressed in his discussion, he emphasised a different priority: the U.S – China AI arms race.
Geopolitical Stakes: AI Dominance Could Spark Conflict
Schmidt compared AI development to winner-takes-all tech monopolies (like Google or Spotify), where the leading nation could dominate globally. The risk? If one country falls behind in the race for superintelligent AI, it might resort to extreme measures—even war—to avoid irrelevance.
This fear may explain why tech billionaires like Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey have controversially called for abolishing IP laws—a move that would devastate creative industries but potentially speed up AI innovation.
Will AI Solve Demographic Collapse—At the Cost of Jobs?
Schmidt remains optimistic about AI’s economic impact, dismissing doomsday job-loss predictions. He argues that, historically, automation creates more jobs than it destroys—a pattern he expects to continue.
Pointing to Asia’s plummeting birth rates, he suggested AI-driven automation could offset labor shortages, boosting productivity for a shrinking workforce. But for musicians, writers, and artists facing AI rivals smarter than any human, that’s cold comfort.
The Bottom Line
Schmidt’s timeline—AGI by 2029, ASI by 2030—signals a seismic shift for creativity, labor, and global power dynamics. While Silicon Valley races ahead, the music industry and broader society must grapple with a pressing question:
Can human artistry survive the age of superintelligent AI?
